Here we are again, right at the precipice of a new generation of consoles, and the future has never looked so bleak. For those of us that have grown up with videogames, from Pong all the way up to the PS3, we are facing a surprising fact: The zenith of our pastime has passed.

There was a time when gamers were a small clan consisting mainly of computer enthusiasts who rocked plaid polo shirts, pocket protectors, and sandals with socks on. Those fortunate founding fathers birthed the gaming culture, and proudly watched as the Atari 2600 stormed into living rooms only to be outdone by the arrival of the all-mighty Nintendo Entertainment System. No Red Rocket Bee-Bee gun ever held a candle to the joy of unwrapping a present to find that your parents (FINALLY) bought you the greatest gift you had (or ever will) receive.

The first console you ever got, whether you’re an old timer like me or a newbie with glory stories of unwrapping a PS3, or Xbox 360, or (I shudder to think) Wii, will always be a contender for the greatest gift in your life. In my gaming journey I’ve spent hundreds of dollars of lunch money on gaming magazines (RIP EGM and Gamepro), stood in line overnight for console releases, and have had the pleasure of experiencing the delight of opening multiple console boxes. Bear with me as I take a brief jaunt down memory lane here, and I bet you can relate.

You hold the console box, and study its weight. This is the first experience you have of it, and the sheer weight of the thing helps tell a story about it. Then you tear off the protective seals that are glued down with industrial strength adhesive. Finally, you slide the console and its protective bits of cardboard and foam out while instruction manuals and warranty information that you’ll never read tumble to the floor. The smell of new plastic and electronics hits you, and you can’t help but smile. Next, you find a place in your entertainment center and start hooking your new best friend up. Then you pick up the controller, and play with it even though the system isn’t on yet. And finally, you hit power, and hear the new greeting chime that will be a friendly reminder of good times ahead for many, many more years. Ahhhhhhhh.

Today, we’re aware that two brand new consoles are coming, and we should be excited. Right? Well, there’s something undeniably different this time around. This time the announcement of new consoles feels vastly different than ever before. In fact, it’s more worrisome than exciting.

The Xbox 360 and the PS3 have both had much longer life spans than their predecessors – the 360 came out in 2005, and the PS3 in 2006. The extended life cycle was due in part to a decision by both companies to attempt to milk their consoles for every penny they could. At the time it was a good decision, but boy have times changed in the past 7 or 8 years. Now, Sony and Microsoft are planning for a new future, and they’re taking dramatically different approaches. They both have their strengths (fanboys are good for one thing and one thing only: flamebaiting into page views, which I’ll avoid here), but they both have dramatic weaknesses as well. Here, I’ll explore all sides of the new consoles from two very different perspectives: That of a business person and that of a gamer.

Sorry Nintendo fans, but I’m ignoring their mess of a console here, because it deserves to be ignored into non-existence.

SONY PS4

Sony came out of the gate early, with guns blazing, and gave us a ton of information about their new console. Yes, they forgot to show us what it looked like, what it would cost, or when it would be released, but after the disastrous Microsoft conference I think we can all forgive these slight omissions by Sony.

Last gen, Sony screwed up royally by giving the 360 a full year to gain momentum before the PS3 was released. They obviously learned from that mistake, and are intent on getting to market at the same time as their biggest competitor. Good for them! I think we all benefit when two console manufacturers compete like this.

PS4 Power: Sorry to do this so early, but I’ve got to crap on the pride parade of Sony fans as far as the power of the new PS4 goes. Analysts agree that the PS4 packs slightly more power than Microsoft’s baby, but it is a fairly insignificant difference. Truth be told, I think we can expect to see the same difference in games between the PS4 and Xbox One as we did between the PS3 and the 360, which is to say: None.

Yes, yes, yes, I fully agree that Uncharted 2 and 3 looked stunning, and far better than what was being presented by Microsoft, but that graphical upgrade wasn’t enough to convince most people to buy one system over another. And when you get to third party games, there was zero difference between the two. I suspect we’ll see the same sort of thing this time around, where the PS4 exclusives look slightly nicer than the Xbox One games, but not by enough to titillate anyone other than Sony fans that are looking to brag about their system.

PS4 Exclusives: Now THIS is where Sony shines! Sony has declared itself the new king of gamers. Sorry, Microsoft fans, that’s the truth. Sony is more dedicated to hardcore gamers, and shows it by being indie friendly and by putting out far better exclusives than Microsoft. This dedication to originality and unique experiences will be the foundation of their new system, and I for one am looking forward to what they have in store for us. For gamers, the PS4 looks to reign supreme.

Overall PS4 Business Plan: And this is where it all comes crashing down for the house of Sony. I hate it when gamers talk about stock prices, because the vast majority of them have no idea how the market works. For instance, when people said that Microsoft’s stock was going to drop after their lackluster press conference, they seemed to think that the Xbox has even a niggling effect on the stock of a multi-billion dollar corporation that controls the lion’s share of office software throughout the entire world (many major sites claimed that Microsoft’s stock would plummet and Sony’s would skyrocket after the crappy Xbox One conference – currently Microsoft is at the highest point it’s been at in six years and Sony is still struggling). Sorry, gamers, but one less-than-enticing press conference about their new video game system isn’t going to have much of an effect on their stock price.

That being said, I think it’s warranted to discuss stock prices when concerning Sony, because the game division of the company has been one of the only strong portions of the company as a whole for the past several years. One look at their stock trend and you’ll see that this is a company on a long-term decline. Since 2001, Sony has plummeted from a share in the mid hundreds down to the current value: 20. OUCH!

This is the point of the discussion where Sony fans scream about how they don’t care about business. All they care about are the games, and that’s why Sony is the greatest thing ever in forever ever! Well, that’s nice kids, please go back to your bowl of Lucky Charms and let the adults talk. You see, as much as you might not like to talk about business, the console manufacturers aren’t in it to make you a great game – they’re in it for the business, and Sony needed to come out of the gate with a system that proved they were looking to the future. They failed miserably at that.

Sony continues to make horrible business decisions – and many of them are GREAT for gamers! For instance, deciding to put a ton of development money into a new portable system (the PS Vita) when the overwhelming trend in mobile gaming is turning to smart phones. Who the hell wants to carry around a bulky portable console when your phone can play games just fine? Sorry, but the PS Vita was a horrid business strategy, and I doubt even extensive PS4 integration is going to change that. For whom the bell tolls? Sorry, it tolls for Vita.

Another example of Sony’s mismanagement is PlayStation Plus. Again, this is an incredible deal for gamers, and perhaps the most boneheaded move for a console manufacturer that I’ve ever seen. It’s well known that manufacturers make very little on the sale of their consoles. The money is in the games. What better way to kill that revenue than to offer a multitude of free games to your customer base? Believe me, I am loathe to decry Sony for their awesome PS+ program, but from a business viewpoint it is staggeringly dumb. You see, it’s impossible to argue with the fact that more and more gamers are getting their fix in new places. Hardcore gamers can scoff at Facebook and mobile games all they want, but the fact remains that people are playing less on consoles and more on other platforms. To bolster interest in a subscription online service by giving away free games, while your closest competitor has already proven that the market will accept a small fee for online access, is mind-numbingly idiotic. In a market where your customer base is spending less time with you, why in the world would you actively attempt to fill that sparse time with freebies?

Sony is continuing its trend of shortsighted planning with the PS4. Yes, I am going to buy one, and yes I am excited about the exclusives they will be offering. However, I strongly believe that the era of the console is coming to an end very, very soon. Before a new round of consoles ever comes around, I suspect we’ll all be enjoying Google Fiber speeds, and we’ll be looking at subscription models that give us access to remote systems that we log into. I’d put money on the PS4 and the Xbox One being the final soldiers in this battle. For that reason, it is incredibly important for these systems to prove useful for something other than gaming, and Sony seems to have absolutely no recognition of this. The PS4 looks to be a really great game system, and that fact might very well be what finally puts them out of business. It’s just a game system in an era where customers will find it increasingly hard to warrant the purchase of a machine of that sort.

Sony fans, don’t hate me too much, because we’re just now getting to the Microsoft side of this shit-splattered coin. Let me bash on them before you decide what level of rage you have for me.

Microsoft Xbox One

What the f#ck, Microsoft?

I swear, the only reason Sony is still in business is because Microsoft headquarters is filled with people intent on designing marketing plans that completely alienate gamers. Want to know why you should consider abandoning Microsoft this time around and buying a PS4? Because Microsoft doesn’t give a flying crap about gamers.

Last gen, the Wii proved that there was money (a LOT of money) in appealing to the casual gamer. Both Microsoft and Sony tried to carve out a piece of that pie when they released the Kinect (360) and the Move (PS3). However, while Sony gave lip service to the casual market, Microsoft proved that they had their sights set on it. Their business model could not be more transparent: Focus on the money – Focus on the money – Focus on the money.

Sorry, fellow hardcore gamers, we don’t carry the weight that the casual market does. For that reason, the Xbox One is centrally focused on appealing to the average person instead of on gamers. I’ll get into the business side of this in a minute, but first let me just bitch about it a little more.

Always-On: This is one of those controversies that swept through the gamer community and everyone was certain this would be the nail in Microsoft’s coffin. The rumor that the system would have to be always online to play games hit with the thud of a coffin filled with sand. Gamers had just witnessed the legendarily bad release of Diablo 3 and SimCity, both of which were hindered by an online requirement that made it where you couldn’t even play the game when they were released.

Microsoft hinted that this rumor wasn’t true, but as of now it seems like it largely is. Apparently, all games will require that you’re online at least once a day to verify your account, meaning, basically, that you have to be online from time to time to play games. Now, do you want to know why Microsoft doesn’t care about how angry you are about this? Because the market Microsoft is going for doesn’t give a crap. Do you really think the casual gaming market that is currently transfixed on their Sugar Crush Facebook game cares if their new game system has to be online? Do you see why they don’t care? Aha! You’re stuck in the hardcore gamer mindset, and you’ve failed to realize that you ARE NOT Microsoft’s demographic anymore. Sorry, pal, but there’s a vastly larger market at stake here, and Microsoft has a laser accurate pinpoint on them.

In Microsoft’s new business plan, always-on is a mute issue.

No Used Games: If you work at a Gamestop, you need to go find new employment. I don’t care about the lip-service that either Microsoft or Sony are giving about how they’re going to support the used game market: the age of the used game store is coming to an end. This is another one of those issues where gamers have a bad habit of declaring things as “FACT” only because they want it to be true. People are going to claim that the PS4 will win this gen because they are saying that they’re going to allow used games, but that is willfully ignorant.

You see, as much as I love buying used games (hitting up the $5 box for a ton of crappy old games is a great way to spend a Saturday), I also understand the fact that the used game market is a scourge for game developers, console manufacturers, and damn near EVERYONE in the game industry that doesn’t work at a used game store. Now, your argument very well might be that stores like Gamestop will actively try to sell the PS4 over the Xbox One if Microsoft locks out used games (or charges a hefty fee, as is what has currently been said), but using that very same logic, there’s something fairly obvious that you’re ignoring: If the PS4 allows used games, then the big box stores, where far more consoles are sold, will have a huge reason to focus their floor space on the sale of Xbox One’s over PS4’s. After all, Best Buy, Walmart, Target, and all the other major retailers will dramatically benefit from the end of the the used game market. Are you starting to see how Microsoft is making bold business moves with the Xbox One whereas Sony is building a mountain of mistakes? If not, let’s continue.

TV Integration: The appeal of the new Xbox seems obvious to me: It does more than play games. The Xbox One turns your television into a Smart TV. Yes, yes, yes, I know that some of you already have Smart TVs. Spare me your exclamation about how wealthy you are that you bought a huge Smart TV already. For most of us, we haven’t yet delved into the convenience of having a television that connects to the internet, has access to social media, and can do all the things that the new Xbox offers. And here is where the Xbox One really shines.

You see, the PS4 is definitely the machine for the hardcore gamer, and I suspect Microsoft is fine with that. MS is looking to the future, and realizes that the market for consoles is coming to a screeching halt. How Sony doesn’t see that is a mystery to me. Microsoft is desperate to make sure families across the world understand that the Xbox One is more than just a game machine, and that’s ultimately what will win them this next generation of gaming – provided the things they offer are tantalizing enough to start a buzz. Before I can go further on this topic, let me delve into the business plan side of things.

Overall Xbox One Business Plan: Sorry Sony fans, but MS has you beat here, and you should be worried about it. You see, Sony is banking on hardcore gamers, and I greatly appreciate the attention. I plan on playing the heck out of the PS4, because it seems obvious that Sony’s system is going to be the preferred platform for hardcore gamers this time around. But I also loved playing my Dreamcast back in the day. A great system does not make a sound foundation for a company. There are a lot of other components, and I think Sony is in a lot of danger this time around.

As a gamer, I despise Microsoft’s direction here. As a business person, I hugely respect them for it.  They’re largely ignoring the hardcore gamer market this time around, and if I’m being honest I think they started ignoring them midway through the last gen. And this is smart of them, because the hardcore market will acquiesce in time.

This is how I predict the next year or two will go: The PS4 and the X1 will come out, and sales will be fairly even at first, largely due to loyal fanbases that buy up the initial run of both consoles. Both companies will run out of early systems, and game sales will be about even as well. I’d even give Sony a slight advantage early on due to stronger overseas support. However, things will turn after the holiday season.

Microsoft will focus their advertising efforts on the way the X1 integrates television into the equation. Hardcore gamers, please stop screaming through the internet at me about how you personally don’t care – did you already forget? Microsoft isn’t targeting you. Most of the ads will show how the X1 plays all the major games that the PS4 does, but it also turns your television into a Smart TV.

Christmas 2013 is when you’re going to see the true effect of their business plan. If MS does a good job of advertising, then parents will be headed to stores in late 2013 to buy a new system for their home. Their kids are clamoring for a new system, and why wouldn’t the parents choose the one that does more than just play games? Access to Netflix and other streaming services isn’t enough anymore. Hell, our OLD systems do that. How will putting a new PS4 into the house affect a parent that doesn’t really play videogames? Because putting an X1 into the house has the potential to offer a lot of cool things.

Suddenly, 2014 rolls around and hardcore gamers that chose to support Sony will start to find out that their friends received an X1 for Christmas. Then our nieces and nephews will start getting them, and before we know it, our Sony friends list begins to get lonelier and lonelier as more and more people start embracing the new behemoth.

In Conclusion

It’s still way too early to make the type of bold predictions that I have made here. If either of these companies have proven anything, it’s that they are prone to stupidity. We’re one boneheaded mistake away from seeing a major shift in the upcoming battle. And we haven’t even seen what E3 has to offer yet! However, you didn’t read this article to see me shrug my shoulders and say, “Who knows?”

I wish Sony all the best, and I love that they are so determined to provide the highest quality gaming experience they can for their customers. I want them to succeed, and I hope that they do. But the market they’re focusing on is dwindling, and they keep making bad mistakes. Sure, if they fully support used games then I’ll love them for it, but it’s a bad business decision. If they give away tons of free games with a new PS+ program I’ll love them for it, but it’s a bad business decision. And if they choose to focus solely on offering a great game system instead of trying to integrate themselves into other parts of our entertainment experience… well, I think you get the point.

I’m disgruntled by many of Microsoft’s decisions. They’ve made it apparent that they think the only gamers worth focusing on are the ones that play Call of Duty and sports games non-stop, along with the casual gamers that want to play Facebook games on their televisions. They have zero interest in advancing the medium, and investing in unique, against-the-norm games.

I’ll admit that I’m intrigued by the TV integration, as well as what possibilities there are with the new and improved Kinect, but overall, as a gamer, I am saddened by the way MS has abandoned me. They only care about how to pull in the largest amount of money, and unfortunately, that’s exactly why we might see them put Sony out of business in the next five years.

I’m going to buy both systems, and if the PS4 controller feels better than the PS3 one did (this is a personal preference thing – I always hated the way the PS3 controller felt), and they have a good online service, then I can definitely see myself playing my PS4 more than my X1. So, as a gamer I am firmly on Sony’s side here. HOWEVER, I would never put money on Sony right now. Their business plan sucks, and it has sucked for a long time. I’m sincerely worried that the PS4 is going to put Sony out of business, and that makes me very sad.

As a hardcore gamer, I don’t want Microsoft to dominate the industry, because they’ve proven that they don’t give a crap about me. However, Sony is going to have to prove that they’re going to be smarter this time around than they have in the past, and so far they look to be making all the same type of mistakes.